Outplayed Pro
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Lucky Finder
The Lucky Finder tool is a new way of taking advantage of combination bets (primarily Lucky 15s). We can generate very profitable betslips that represent great long term value (even though we won't be laying them). We calculate the chance of each horse winning/placing, then give each selection a weighting that favours high value and low odds. The Lucky Finder will then generate betslips with these favourable horses.
What Are Lucky 15s?
A Lucky 15 bet is created by adding 4 selections (in different events) to your betslip. You'll then see a Lucky 15 option to enter your stake for. The Lucky 15 includes all the combinations of bets possible for those 4 selections - 4 singles, 6 doubles, 4 trebles and one four-fold. This leaves you with 15 different bets, hence the name, Lucky 15.
L15s can also be placed as each-way bets by ticking the Each Way option in your betslip (which is what we'll be doing after we find our bet with the Lucky Finder). For an each-way Lucky 15 there are 30 bets in total (since it now includes bets on the horses to place).
Other combination bets are available such as a Lucky 31. A Lucky 31 bet includes 5 selections: 5 singles, 10 doubles, 10 trebles, 5 four-folds and a five-fold accumulator.
You will find yourself mainly placing Lucky 15s.
Why Are They Profitable?
Generally, when horses are +EV, the value is found in the place part of the each-way bet, as the place bets are all combined with each other, these bets compound quickly to generate high EV bets within the Lucky 15 betslip.
Let’s say we have two break-even horses, both with 50% win EV and 150% place EV (100% average, so therefore break even). We'll use a £10 each-way bet (£20 total stake) as an example. What is our EV when combined in a double each-way bet (which is essentially two bets - £10 bet on both horses to win, and £10 bet on both horses to place)?
We have a win bet with a value of:
50% * 50% = 25% (you'd expect to lose £7.50 per £10 staked)
and a place bet with a value of:
150% * 150% = 225% (you'd expect to win £12.50 per £10 staked)
This means we'd be £5 up overall from our £20 stake (a 125% return). Therefore, given this compounding effect, even break-even horses can create +EV betting slips. These calculations can get a little tricky when moving onto Lucky 15s, but fortunately, the software does all this for you!
In addition, some bookmakers offer bonus payouts of 2 or 3 times your money if only one horse in the slip wins; which can increase the value by a fairly large margin.
Lucky Finder Overview
Firstly, don't be alarmed when there are no results when you load up the Lucky Finder. It only shows something when you click Search to generate a betslip. It will generate a new betslip each time you click Search to make sure customers aren't all betting on the exact same thing.
At the top you can set various filters for your bet before you generate your selections.
After clicking Search you will see all your selections and the information of each selection:
Fair Win Odds - The odds that represent the actual chance of the horse winning the race. For example if this shows 70.0 then there is a 1 in 70 chance that the horse wins.
Fair Place Odds - The odds that represent the actual chance of the horse placing in the race. For example if this shows 10.0 then there is a 1 in 10 chance that the horse places.
Win EV - The EV from the win part of the bet. For example with a £10 Each Way bet with 90% Win EV, the £10 win part of the bet would have a value of -£1 in the long run.
Place EV - The EV from the place part of the bet. For example with a £10 Each Way bet with 160% Place EV, the £10 place part of the bet would have a value of £6 in the long run.
At the bottom you'll find the Overall EV and your overall odds. The Overall EV is the most important thing and this tells you how profitable your bet is. For example if your total stake is £10 and your Overall EV is 112.1%, the long term value of this bet is £1.21.
Note that the EV can be affected by non-runners in your races. Too many non-runners can lead to the bookie's number of places being reduced and thus lowering the EV. Here are some tips to minimise this risk:
- Avoid placing bets too far in advance of the race.
- Races where the number of runners is 1 away from the number of places being dropped are higher risk. You can read more about this here. You can also get a feed of non-runner reports on the forum here.
- Bad weather will increase the likelihood of non-runners.
- A race with more runners means a higher chance of there being non-runners, but on the flipside, there's often a lower chance of these non-runners causing the bookies to drop the number of places.
On the right hand side you can choose to remove a horse. This will make it so that horse won't show up in any search results again.
To undo this and get the removed horses back in your search results, go to the Removed Horses dropdown filter, select the horses you want to reinstate, then click Delete.
My Bets
Underneath the overall EV, you'll see a "ADD TO MY BETS" button which will allow you to store the current selections to the My Bets section. This is great for keeping track of the bets you've placed.
Going to the My Bets section will show all of your stored bets.
To view the current value of your slip click the small calculator icon and input the current results of your horses. If you are deciding whether a cash out value is worth taking, then input the current fair win/place odds of horses that are still to run, using the values from the Extra Place Master. The total value of the slip will then show at the top (£100.93 in this example):
This section also has access to a very handy graph to show how your profits tally up with the value taken.
Staking Strategy
- Always bet each-way as the value is found in the place part of these bets.
- A bankroll of a minimum of £500 for Lucky 15 bets alone is recommended.
- I recommend betting around £0.20 - £0.50 each-way on an each-way Lucky 15. As this is 30 bets, this would be £6 to £15 per bet. When considering increasing/decreasing your standard size, these are some things you may consider.
- As betslip odds increase, you should decrease your stake. If slip odds decrease, you can increase your stake. This is to keep your variance in line.
- If the betslip is compiled of many high-place EV horses, consider increasing your stakes as these have reduced variance. Consider decreasing if the slip is composed of many high-win EV horses.
- Increase stakes if the bookmaker offers a double or triple payout on single winners; these bets have much less variance as the value gained from these bonuses occurs often (more information about these bonuses in the tips section below).
- Don’t worry if a horse within the slip is below 100% EV if the overall betslip is still profitable (above 100% EV); this can keep accounts open for longer. EV horses with high-place EVs can still help increase the betslip's overall EV.
Helpful Tips
- Be prepared to have swings in profits/losses. Just like casino offers, Lucky 15s offer fantastic long term value but each bet isn't guaranteed to profit. You'll have losing bets along the way, but do enough bets and your results will get closer and closer to the EV.
- It's vital to ensure races aren’t close to losing a place due to non-runners, as this can massively affect that horse's EV and, therefore, the overall slip EV. Filtering out races in danger of losing a place is wise, especially earlier in the day.
- Lucky 15s at some websites have double or triple payouts if only one horse wins. These bonuses massively reduce variance. The Lucky Finder factors these bonuses into the EV calculations. This is a list of the bonuses on each site: Betfred - 3x, Bet365 - 2x, BoyleSports - 2x, Unibet - 2x, DragonBet 2x.
- I recommend betting on slips above 115% if the odds are below 50,000 or 120% if they are above 50,000.
- Click search to refresh before placing the bet. Bets that are a few minutes stale can have wildly different EVs.
- Once you have placed a slip, you can remove the horses and search again to avoid using the same horse twice on the same bookmaker.
- It is not recommended to cash out your bet at the bookmaker as this will reduce your value.
- Bookmakers that offer Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG) will have more EVs than the software predicts. BOG concessions are compounded. If you assume that BOG generates 3% in EV, then the four-fold part of the bet in Lucky 15s is now gaining 1.03 x 1.03 x 1.03 x 1.03 = 1.125 (12.5% in extra EV).
- Betting on Saturdays / Festivals will generate the best accas with the lowest variance. The variance is heavily reduced these days due to an increase in Place EV.
- Avoiding Irish races and large odds horses can help preserve accounts.
- Set Max Win EV to 100 to filter out win arbs.
- Expect high betslip odds during festivals, but high EVs (especially in the place), which will lead to relatively low variance in these slips.
- Lucky 15 slips have a smaller variance to four-folds/five-folds as the Lucky 15 slip includes all singles/doubles/trebles. Combined with the bonuses from one horse winning, as mentioned above, the variance can be relatively small.
- Bookmaker max win limits rarely matter unless betting on four-folds or five-folds. Lucky 15 bets have most of their value in place bets and singles/doubles win bets. Fourfold winning is incredibly rare and makes up a small percentage of the overall EV.
- If you have searched for a slip a few times at a certain bookmaker and no slips are profitable, it is best to move on to another bookmaker.